Monday, January 7, 2008

New Hampshire May Doom This Clinton

February 18, 1992. That was the day one of the most biased reports in the history of American politics sent Bill Clinton on his way to the White House. For reasons that absolutely mystify me, Clinton somehow was called 'the comeback kid' by virtue of turning an 11-point lead in the polls on January 16 to an eight-point loss a month later. That kind of commitment to truth symbolized the Clinton years, culminating in the impeachment for perjury.

Now another Clinton - one lacking her husband's ability to lie as convincingly - stands on the precipice of political oblivion. If Hillary Clinton loses to Barack Obama in tomorrow's New Hampshire primary, her dream (and perhaps the Clinton's marriage?) is over. A loss to Obama in yet a second largely monolithic white vote state will render her path to the nomination highly unlikely.

The blog had a good week last week, correctly predicting both Obama's win and Hillary's third place finish and former Governor Huckabee's victory in Iowa.

The predictions? Obama beats Hillary, but not by as much as the polls suggest. Call it a virtual tie with Obama the winner. McCain will win the New Hampshire primary, but Romney will be the big story as the candidate 'on a roll.'

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Iowa Caucus Predictions

I have to keep it short for time's sake today.

In Iowa, I predict Obama first, Edwards second, and Hillary third for the Democrats. The Republican order will be a slight win for Huckabee, who will share the spotlight with Romney. I think McCain can finish third and Thompson will be, for all intents and purposes, out.